The U.S. Sentencing Commission recently released its FY 2025 Second Quarter Compassionate Release Data Report, shedding light on how federal courts are handling these critical motions. This year’s trends, along with recent legal developments, reflect evolving standards and shifting outcomes in compassionate release cases. The latest data, and what it may signal for the future, appears below.

What is Compassionate Release? (A Quick Refresher) 

Compassionate release is a mechanism that allows federal inmates to be released early from prison under “extraordinary and compelling” circumstances. 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A) is the section of federal law that governs this legal process. We will talk about the compassionate release data below, but a 30,000 foot overview is always helpful. Generally, under federal law, courts do not modify a prison sentence once they impose it. However, 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A) creates a limited exception. This statute provides that a court may reduce a prison term if:

1. Extraordinary and compelling reasons warrant a sentence reduction; and 
2. The reduction is consistent with the applicable policy statements of the U.S. Sentencing Commission.

Considerations for sentence reduction determination include standard sentencing factors including but not limited to public safety, the nature of the offense, and the inmate’s rehabilitation.

What Counts as ‘Extraordinary and Compelling Reasons’ for Compassionate Release?

To grant release under federal law, a judge must find that an individual serving time presented ‘extraordinary and compelling circumstances,’ and that early release is consistent with § 3553(a) sentencing guidelines. In 1984, U.S. Congress passed the Sentencing Reform Act, a foundation for the modern federal sentencing system. This directive required the U.S. Sentencing Commission to establish clear definitions of what qualifies under ‘extraordinary and compelling reasons.’ In response to 28 U.S.C. § 994(t), the Commission created Guideline § 1B1.13 to define when a court may reduce a federal inmate’s sentence. Below, a list of the (updated 2023) qualifying circumstances include:

• Medical Circumstances
  • Including serious medical conditions that substantially diminish the ability to care for oneself in prison or a terminal illness.
    • (It is important to note that while the number of compassionate release motions increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the grant rates have stabilized at these modest levels. For instance, in 2020, the grant rate was nearly 17%, but this rate declined as the pandemic’s urgency diminished and vaccines became widely available. FY 2025 Q2 data shows that COVID-19/pandemic reasons only accounted for 0.6% of all granted releases.)
• Age & Time Served
  • The defendant is at least 65 years old, has served 10 years or 10% of their sentence, and is experiencing deteriorating health. 

• Family Circumstances

  • The death or incapacitation of the primary caregiver for a defendant’s minor child.
  • The incapacitation of a spouse or partner when the defendant is the only available caregiver.

• Victim of Abuse

  • If an inmate suffers sexual, physical, or other severe abuse while in custody or by corrections officials that cannot be mitigated by BOP.

• Unusually Long Sentence or Changes in Law

  • An “unusually long” sentence combined with a non‑retroactive change in law that would produce a lower sentence today, after at least 10 years served.

• Other Reasons

  • Any comparable, unforeseen hardship the court (post‑First Step Act) or the BOP identifies.

Who Can File a Motion for Compassionate Release?

Under the 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A), federal inmates can file a motion for compassionate release directly with the court, even without an attorney, as long as they’ve first submitted a request to the BOP and either received no response for thirty days or were denied. While this pro se exists, the reality is that navigating the procedural requirements without expert guidance can be overwhelming and risky. 

Successfully securing compassionate release requires far more than a heartfelt plea. Courts expect detailed documentation of medical records, sentencing history, rehabilitation efforts, and family circumstances. Compassionate release Motions must align with strict criteria defined by both statute and the U.S. Sentencing Commission’s policy guidance. Judges also weigh public safety concerns and the sentencing factors under § 3553(a). A single misstep, like an unclear medical diagnosis, missing documentation, or an underdeveloped argument can result in outright denial of your request for compassionate release from federal prison. 

While filing a motion for compassionate release alone may seem like an unlikely solution, with proper guidance, these motions can create a path to freedom. In fact, almost 16% of all compassionate release motions ruled on in 2024 were granted. This is a modest upward trend from FY 2023, when only 13.8% of motions were granted. The increasing number of grants is influenced by the 2018 First Step Act, which aims to reduce recidivism by allowing a broader expansion of the requirements for compassionate release. With a well-versed First Step Act attorney, you may have a great chance of receiving a grant. A great lawyer can help:

• Frame your circumstances within recognized legal categories under 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A).
• Anticipate and address concerns a judge may raise.
• Draft a motion with clear legal citations, a compelling narrative, and persuasive evidence tailored to the specific court.

For a deeper understanding of the nuances behind the First Step Act and compassionate release motions, check out Attorney Zachary Newland’s insights here. Or you can just call us today at (303) 948-1489 to speak with an experienced compassionate release lawyer at Evergreen Attorneys. 

How The Sentencing Commission Reports Work

To track trends and ensure transparency, the U.S. Sentencing Commission releases compassionate release data four times a year, based on the federal government’s fiscal calendar. The fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30, and is divided into four quarters:

• Q1: October – December
• Q2: January – March
• Q3: April – June
• Q4: July – September

Each quarterly report provides cumulative data up to that point in the fiscal year. ​​So, the most recent release, a Second Quarter (Q2) report, covers compassionate release data from October 1, 2024 through March 31 of the 2025 fiscal year. Additionally, this quarter’s report includes contextual data dating back to October of 2021, allowing visibility of yearly trends.

FY 2025 Q2 Preliminary Data Report: Key Numbers

The FY 2025 Q2 Compassionate Release data Report Provides insight into nationwide trends and outcomes for federal compassionate release motions. The snapshot below offers data points that may shape future motions and legal strategies:

• Total Motions Filed: 1,381

• • • This figure reflects the cumulative number of compassionate release motions filed nationwide from October 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025.

• Most Motions Filed in a Single Month: 277

• • • Of Quarter 2, October saw the highest monthly volume of filings, indicating an early surge in requests.
  • Approval Rates Remain Stable
    • November 2024 saw the highest approval rate at 19.4%, and courts granted motions at a stable rate throughout quarter.
• Gender Disparity
• Female Motions Filed: Only 22

• Female Approval Rate: 10.5%

• Age Trends:

• • • Average Age at Original Sentencing: 38–39 years

• Average Age at Motion Decision: 47–52 years

Who Are Courts Approving for Compassionate Release?

Understanding who is receiving compassionate release approvals sheds light on how courts are weighing factors like criminal history, offense type and mitigating circumstances. This compassionate release data allows practitioners and defendants to assess the likelihood of approval based on specific case factors, like criminal history categories.

• What Are the Six Criminal History Categories?

• • In federal criminal cases, a judge uses several elements to determine sentencing. A key factor includes criminal history, or prior convictions. Defendants are classified into six Criminal History Categories (I to VI) based on the severity and recency of their prior convictions. This classification influences the sentencing range by intersecting with the offense level on the Sentencing Table.

Criminal History Category Q2 Data

Importantly, compassionate release approvals are not confined to those with minimal criminal histories. Here is what the compassionate release data tells us:

• Category I (Lowest Risk): 28.8% of granted motions; 23.0% denied
• Category VI (Highest Risk): 37.5% granted; 36.3% denied

This distribution suggests that courts are willing to consider compassionate release for individuals across the criminal history spectrum, provided the motions are well-substantiated.

Offense Types Among Granted Motions

The types of offenses associated with granted compassionate release motions include, but are not limited to:

• Drug Trafficking made up for 45.5% of cases filed
• Robbery: 15.9% 
• Firearms: 12.1% 
• Murder: 6.3%

Primary Reasons for Granting Motions

Courts have cited several key reasons for approving compassionate release motions:

1. Rehabilitation: Demonstrated significant personal reform post-sentencing. 17.0% or 54 of the grants from quarter 2 cites rehabilitation as their primary reason for approval.
2. Unusually Long Sentence & Changes in Law: Those serving 10 or more years are considered to have served a long sentence. Adjustments in sentencing laws affect long term sentences. Subsequently, 13.5% (or 45 total) grants cited this as their primary reason for approval.

• Over half of the grants covered crimes where the original sentence was 20 years or more. This reinforces what experienced defense attorneys already know: the success of a motion depends more on the strength of the evidence and circumstances, not just the charge.

1. Serious Medical Conditions: Health issues that substantially diminish the ability to provide self-care within the correctional facility (12.6%, or 40 grants).

Legal Developments and Trends to Watch

The FY 2025 Q2 data indicates a continued, albeit modest, increase in compassionate release grants. Notably, courts are increasingly considering factors like significant changes in law and exceptional rehabilitation efforts as valid grounds for release. This shift reflects the broader interpretation of factors that constitute compassionate release grants.

Additionally, the data reveals a growing trend of individuals filing motions pro se, without legal representation. However, success rates for these self-filed motions remain lower compared to those submitted with attorney assistance, again highlighting the importance of creating skilled and knowledgeable legal advocacy when navigating the complexities of compassionate release. 

• Circuit Split on the Role of Sentencing Law Changes:

• • One of the most consequential developments this quarter is a circuit split over the role of non-retroactive sentencing law changes. A nonretroactive change in law occurs when Congress changes a criminal statute but purposefully makes that change not apply to anyone that has already been sentenced. The 2023 amendment allowed judges to consider these changes in evaluating release motions. The U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2023 policy amendments allowed courts to consider certain non-retroactive changes in sentencing law as a basis for release. But in April 2025, the Sixth Circuit ruled that this expansion exceeded the Commission’s authority. This sets up a potential circuit split, which could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court. Until then, the location where a motion is filed may significantly affect its outcome.

Geographic Differences In Approval Rates: How Colorado Courts Handle Compassionate Release

The U.S. Sentencing Commission’s FY 2025 Second Quarter compassionate release data provides a national overview for compassionate release cases. Understanding the broader trends can offer beneficial insight. These trends can help explain how legal actors in Colorado may be approaching compassionate release motions.

As of Q2, almost 16% of compassionate release motions have been granted which is a meaningful approval rate in the context of federal sentencing.

While only two Colorado cases were filed in the second quarter, both cases were granted, boasting a 100% success rate for those who filed from the Sixth Circuit state. For individuals seeking compassionate release, this geographic variability underscores the importance of jurisdiction-specific legal strategy. An experienced federal defense attorney who understands how your district court typically rules on these motions can make a crucial difference in presenting a compelling, locally attuned case.

Why The 2025 Data Matters for Practitioners and Defendants

What can we learn from the compassionate release data? Courts have decided 1,135 compassionate release motions  so far this year, granting 183 and denying 952. While still selective, this nearly 16% approval rate is a significant number for federal sentences, signaling that courts are open to well-prepared, well-articulated motions. 

For federal compassionate release attorneys, staying informed on quarterly trends is not simply good practice, rather, is essential. Understanding how approval rates shift over time, what arguments succeed, and which changes in sentencing law or policy may impact cases can give clients a crucial edge. 

For defendants and their families, this data shows that while compassionate release isn’t guaranteed, it is achievable with the proper approach. Partnering with a knowledgeable federal criminal defense attorney can dramatically improve the chances of success.

 

Evergreen Attorneys bring the expertise to craft compelling compassionate release motions, navigate complex legal frameworks, and argue effectively before the court. Our experienced federal defense team is here to guide you, ensuring that every motion is as strong and strategic as possible. Looking to hire a compassionate release lawyer? Contact Evergreen Attorneys at (303) 948-1489 or by email to [email protected]. 

 

You can find the U.S. Sentencing Commission recently released its FY 2025 Second Quarter Compassionate Release Data Report here:

FY25Q2-Compassionate-Release